RWD + PMR = Tethering Demand Forecasts to Reality

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Published April 30, 2024

tethered climbing rope

Reliable forecast models are a cornerstone of any successful commercialization plan.

The inputs that drive those forecast models are critical.

From 2020 through 2022:

Only

1

in

10

products had performance aligned with forecasted expectations*

Nearly

60%

underperformed their forecast expectations

More than

30%

overperformed

Forecast models often rely on healthcare professional (HCP)-reported behavioral data.

Various subjective calibration factors are required to render the data usable, even after implementing robust market research design elements.

Data from primary market research (PMR) may be subject to recall or response bias.

tethered climbing rope
A tangle of future perceptions and intentions, attitudes and perceptions, and HCP-reported behavioral data

HCP-level integration of real-world data tethers your forecast to reality.

HCP-level integration of real-world data (RWD) with PMR provides a comprehensive view of what each physician is currently doing, why they are doing it and how.

This view complements what physicians may say in market research by putting it in context.

PMR and RWD, combining real-world behavioral data, real-world practice dynamics, attitudes and perceptions, and future perceptions and intentions

Significant improvements in the prediction of future market share estimates, nearly 20 times in certain case examples, shows the power of integrating Real‑World Data with primary market research. The impact of such an improvement could change the strategy and tactics of a brand’s commercialization plan.

Clive Mendonca

Clive Mendonca
Managing Director,
Head of Quantitative Insights

Tethering behavioral and practice dynamics to reality by seamlessly integrating PMR and RWD accounts for HCP-level differences in real-world behaviors.

This “tethering” approach can improve prediction of future market share estimates by nearly

20 times

More realistic forecast inputs make for more realistic forecast outputs
Tethering to Reality cover

For more on this topic, read our recent white paper: Tethering to Reality: Integrating HCP-level Real‑World Data into Brand Share Estimation

*Source: Trinity White Paper – What Lies Ahead for New Product Launches?


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