Waltham, MA, July 27, 2020 – Trinity Life Sciences, a leader in global life sciences solutions, published a new forecasting paper entitled Considerations for Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19: How can life sciences companies most accurately project the spread of COVID-19 to plan for the future? The paper details the steps that life sciences forecasters should take to ensure they are incorporating the right assumptions and data to most accurately project the spread of COVID-19.
The extraordinary worldwide effort to combat the COVID-19 pandemic is generating an unprecedented stream of new clinical and scientific data, candidate vaccines, and investigational therapies aimed at reducing the burden of disease. Meanwhile, the continued spread of disease fluctuates across the globe as countries, states, and local governments implement measures to curb disease transmission. Accurately projecting the future of the COVID-19 pandemic requires that forecasters rapidly evaluate and incorporate developments into their forecasts across a set of critical assumptions.
Whether forecasting a vaccine or therapy directly intended to treat COVID-19 or a product that is impacted by COVID-19, forecasters need to stay abreast of developments across a varied set of topics. Those topics include new scientific and clinical developments about the virus itself, as well as new data about emerging vaccines and therapeutics that have the potential to limit spread or reduce hospitalizations or mortality. Forecasters also need to stay current on the extent of disease spread and policy decisions that could alter the pandemic’s trajectory. Finally, forecasters need to be aware of the economic factors that will impact the likelihood of widespread access to treatments and vaccines.
“With so much at stake, and so much change, forecasting in this environment is both vital and difficult,” said Dave Fitzhenry, CEO, Trinity. “The vast amount of relevant information being produced daily and the need to create the number and type of scenarios required to give stakeholders the views to make critical day-to-day decisions present novel challenges for life sciences forecasting teams. We feel strongly that if forecasters at pharma, medical device and diagnostics companies consider the assumptions and steps we lay out in this paper, they can provide the projections needed to make more confident business decisions.”
The paper also emphasizes that forecasters should develop processes to bring in emerging data from a variety of sources – including some new and unfamiliar sources that they may have not previously used.
To download the paper, please click the following link, Considerations for Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19: How can life sciences companies most accurately project the spread of COVID-19 to plan for the future?
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